# Climate and Energy — Pathways, Tipping Points and the Carbon Budget

**URL:** https://thecodex.expert/energy/climate/
**Session:** 22 | **Date:** 2026-05-04

## Summary

Energy sector produces ~75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Energy CO₂ 2023: ~37.4 Gt (IEA record). Atmospheric CO₂ 2024: ~421 ppm (Mauna Loa 19.54N 155.58W — Keeling Curve). Carbon budget for 1.5°C: ~250 Gt CO₂ remaining (IPCC AR6) — at 37-40 Gt/yr, exhausted in 6-7 years. Global temperature 2024: ~1.45°C above pre-industrial (WMO). IEA NZE 2050 pathway requires: no new oil/gas fields, coal phased from power by 2030 in developed nations, 70% wind+solar electricity by 2050. IPCC AR6 C1 scenario: net zero CO₂ by 2050. COP milestones: Rio 1992 (22.90S 43.17W), Kyoto 1997 (35.01N 135.77E), Paris 2015 (48.92N 2.36E), COP26 Glasgow (55.86N 4.25W), COP27 Sharm (27.86N 34.33E), COP28 Dubai (25.13N 55.37E). Tipping points: Greenland ice sheet (72.00N 40.00W), West Antarctic (85.00S 90.00W), AMOC slowdown, Amazon dieback (3.00S 60.00W). World off-track: current NDCs → ~2.5°C; current policies → ~2.8-3.2°C (UNFCCC Global Stocktake 2023). Sources: IEA WEO 2024, IPCC AR6, WMO 2024, NOAA.